Crapto

What a shitshow – https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46154491. – HN midwits are outdoing themselves in trying to signal their virtues and unique snowflakeness. Turns out I know enough math, programming, LLM theory (including the underlying math) and trading (in the Elder’s tradition) to understand that this is an utter crap – “Everyone is a genius in a bull market”. This is bullshit at so many levels, and yet, someone paid for this and the “researchers” got the highest possible “living standards”, of course. ...

So what happened October 10 2025? This is called a “liquidation cascade”, when all the degens rushed on the same side of a boat (uncertainly over-levelraged longs at an obvious top). The exact mechanics cannot be known in principle, since everything happens at the level of exchange’s matching engines, which may even glitch at such high loads. The facts are that market orders are “by design” executed to the words possible price (depending on the direction) to maximize profits for an exchange, since clients “don’t care”, and limit orders are almost always been “not filled” (not out problem!), to maximize loses of our “valued customers” and hence exchange’s profits. ...

DESCRIPTION: Read some Shiller for Christ sake. I am so tired. These things, when I suddenly stumble upon them, render me speechless and feel wasted and burned out https://www.kaggle.com/code/vanpatangan/forecast-bitcoin-future-price This is a Jupyter notebook (an .ipynb), originally developed on Google Colab, where they have all the datasets and the tools to run the notebooks quickly. It uses some pre-defined package called Prophet (just imagine!) , which I assume contain some basic “state-of-the-art” statistical inference crap. ...